Wednesday, April 23, 2008
He can't win
The story out of Pennsylvania tonight is that Obama may win the nomination, but he probably will not win in the general. (I am also unconvinced that Hillary can win against McCain, but her chances strike me as somewhat better.)
He built his lead in the traditional red states. The populous, electoral-vote heavy blue and purple states tend not to like him as much.
Barack Obama probably will not win (in the general) in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Michigan, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico. The margins will be too close for comfort in California and Massachusetts. How can any Dem prevail under those circumstances?
He'll have a huge victory in the North Carolina primary, and the Kossacks will crow like Peter Pan when it happens -- but so what? North Carolina, like most other Obama states, won't go blue in November.
"Mr. Unity" has divided and dismembered the Party. Aglachel's analysis is as wise as any I've seen:
Suppose a prominent Clintonian on the radio called Obama's African-American supporters "black trash." Would black people who had suffered such a ghastly insult want to back Clinton in the general? No. They would stay home on election day -- and for good reason.
Insults have consequences. Insults alienate. And the Obama campaign, at least in its online and radio manifestations, has been one massive insult-fest. Consider these examples, plucked at random:
I am persuaded that if Obama's team had refrained from "racist baiting" the Clintons -- if they had decided not to scry racism into the "fairy tale" remark, if they had not spread those technophobic imbecilities about the supposedly "darkened" video, if they had not talked crap about "racist dog whistles" -- Barack Obama might now have a lock on the nomination.
He built his lead in the traditional red states. The populous, electoral-vote heavy blue and purple states tend not to like him as much.
Barack Obama probably will not win (in the general) in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Michigan, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico. The margins will be too close for comfort in California and Massachusetts. How can any Dem prevail under those circumstances?
He'll have a huge victory in the North Carolina primary, and the Kossacks will crow like Peter Pan when it happens -- but so what? North Carolina, like most other Obama states, won't go blue in November.
"Mr. Unity" has divided and dismembered the Party. Aglachel's analysis is as wise as any I've seen:
97% of voters polled gave an opinion on how they would vote in November. The number split indicates of thepercentage providing that answer, how many are HRC supporters and how many are BHO supporters.The Obama surrogates have no-one to blame but themselves. They have done nothing but insult Clinton voters -- for example, earlier today Randi Rhodes referred to anyone who votes for Hillary as "white trash." If that's the way you think of me, Randi, then why should I vote for your preferred candidate in the fall?
If Obama is the nominee:
72% will vote for him (37/63)
15% will vote McCain (90/10)
10% will stay home (99/1)
If Hillary is the nominee:
80% will vote for her (60/40)
11% will vote McCain (26/73)
6% will stay home (7/93)
These numbers should give Dean the heebie jeebies. HRC voters, the majority of Pennsylvania voters, are far less likely to support Obama than the other way around. Further more, they are more likely to defect to McCain than BHO voters.
Suppose a prominent Clintonian on the radio called Obama's African-American supporters "black trash." Would black people who had suffered such a ghastly insult want to back Clinton in the general? No. They would stay home on election day -- and for good reason.
Insults have consequences. Insults alienate. And the Obama campaign, at least in its online and radio manifestations, has been one massive insult-fest. Consider these examples, plucked at random:
What will BJ Clinton do if he can't go back to the White House? I know he was really looking forward to chasing around interns and forcing them to give him oral sex.
How do the Clintons feel knowing that their campaign is being kept afloat by white racists?America is, I think, perfectly ready to vote for a black president. Colin Powell could have won without even trying in 2000. But the situation changes the moment a black candidate (or his surrogates; see the preceding post) implies or states that the message is: "You're a racist if you oppose me." Most Americans have a phobic reaction to guilt-tripping.
I am persuaded that if Obama's team had refrained from "racist baiting" the Clintons -- if they had decided not to scry racism into the "fairy tale" remark, if they had not spread those technophobic imbecilities about the supposedly "darkened" video, if they had not talked crap about "racist dog whistles" -- Barack Obama might now have a lock on the nomination.
...the exitpoll shows that Obama has exhausted his popularity. People who made up their minds since Ohio and Texas voted for Hillary, and the late deciding voters picked Hillary 2-1. This is important as this is a pattern with her in the polls. People who decide late pick her. Voters who favored Obama made up their minds in February, when he was riding the big media wave. Voters who decied on or before Super Tuesday slightly favor Clinton. The momentum is with her.By the way... In his speech tonight, Obama said: "They will try to distract you with ads!" This, from the guy who outspent Hillary four-to-one on television advertising in PA.
Check out Andrew Sullivan. I haven't read him in a while. Steel yourself. It's basically a somewhat more literate Randi Rhodes.
Hi, Joe. The percentages from "Aglachel's analysis" are Pennsylvania exit poll numbers (which you acknowledge somewhat later instead of up-front). No [hyphen not optional where I come from] one in their right or left mind would extrapolate them to all voters everywhere. Even for PA, they are hypothetical. The scientific term is actually 'moronic', since (1) voting for POTUS is an emotional act; (2) not even God can discount the vicissitudes of (a) everything, (b) most things, and (c) some things; (3) it's impossible to predict the effect of the hidden vigorish; and (4) it's not like Galileo dropped the New England Patriots and the New York Giants off the tower top, is it?
If Hillary loses at Denver, her concession and subsequent behavior will determine how her constituency will vote more than how they feel today. Same goes for Barry if he's not the candidate, and for his non-cult supporters. Isn't that obvious, or do you think everyone is like you?
Why do you say Barry will "have a huge victory in the North Carolina primary"? Things have changed again; Hillary just got gobs of new cash; I see many Hillary signs in yards here in North Carolina. For you - only for you - I will go to the neighborhoods where Obama signs are likely to predominate, and I'll report back. But I know Hillary, and if I'm right about her, she'll use some of her new cash for crash-course basketball lessons; expect a YouTube of her demonstrating a give-and-go next week.
Also, the Distraction of the Day will continue to be about the canceled debate that would have led up to the North Carolina primary; it favors Hillary, who wants to debate again.
Maybe you don't know what 'white trash' means (although it's a common term in the Italian-American social lexicon); there isn't any kind of equivalent that can apply to anyone except white people. But, for your edification, you should check out the brilliant "Cooley High" (1975).
Poor Barry. Did you watch his read-from-teleprompter speech last night from Indiana? He said "crow" when he meant to say "grow", he knew he fucked up before the word was finished, he wanted it back, he mumbled the last phoneme. Surely you watched him thank the officials beforehand and flip the bird against his right cheek bone each time he mentioned a woman.
Did you watch Hillary's victory speech? Did you see PA Lt. Governor Catherine Baker Knoll on the stage? You may think you know politicians, but if you don't know her, you're still a rube. I know her, I've had to share podia with her. She makes Bill Clinton seem like a corner newspaper boy. That reminds me, if you want to pontificate about PA politics, you should check out Barbara Hafer, who used to be in Rick 'Baby-farmer' Santorum's camp, but switched to Rendell's camp and changed her party affiliation (thanks to Teresa).
Hey, speaking of newspapers, Rupert now wants to buy Newsday! Do you think he's been keeping track of puppy shit futures or something? I mean they don't wrap fish in newsprint anymore, or hot sweet potatoes on Manahattan streets.
If Hillary loses at Denver, her concession and subsequent behavior will determine how her constituency will vote more than how they feel today. Same goes for Barry if he's not the candidate, and for his non-cult supporters. Isn't that obvious, or do you think everyone is like you?
Why do you say Barry will "have a huge victory in the North Carolina primary"? Things have changed again; Hillary just got gobs of new cash; I see many Hillary signs in yards here in North Carolina. For you - only for you - I will go to the neighborhoods where Obama signs are likely to predominate, and I'll report back. But I know Hillary, and if I'm right about her, she'll use some of her new cash for crash-course basketball lessons; expect a YouTube of her demonstrating a give-and-go next week.
Also, the Distraction of the Day will continue to be about the canceled debate that would have led up to the North Carolina primary; it favors Hillary, who wants to debate again.
Maybe you don't know what 'white trash' means (although it's a common term in the Italian-American social lexicon); there isn't any kind of equivalent that can apply to anyone except white people. But, for your edification, you should check out the brilliant "Cooley High" (1975).
Poor Barry. Did you watch his read-from-teleprompter speech last night from Indiana? He said "crow" when he meant to say "grow", he knew he fucked up before the word was finished, he wanted it back, he mumbled the last phoneme. Surely you watched him thank the officials beforehand and flip the bird against his right cheek bone each time he mentioned a woman.
Did you watch Hillary's victory speech? Did you see PA Lt. Governor Catherine Baker Knoll on the stage? You may think you know politicians, but if you don't know her, you're still a rube. I know her, I've had to share podia with her. She makes Bill Clinton seem like a corner newspaper boy. That reminds me, if you want to pontificate about PA politics, you should check out Barbara Hafer, who used to be in Rick 'Baby-farmer' Santorum's camp, but switched to Rendell's camp and changed her party affiliation (thanks to Teresa).
Hey, speaking of newspapers, Rupert now wants to buy Newsday! Do you think he's been keeping track of puppy shit futures or something? I mean they don't wrap fish in newsprint anymore, or hot sweet potatoes on Manahattan streets.
You are quite right, of course, to point out that the exit numbers applied to the state, not the nation. But PA is a swing state, so the point still stands.
Of course, if the Clinton voters would rather switch than accept Obama, the Kos Krowd will presume that the switch occurred because the Clintonites were not REAL Democrats.
Odd thing: The REAL Democrats voted for Clinton, there and elsewhere. She won with those identified with the party. Obama depends on cross-over and independent voters.
Of course, everything is topsy turvy. In this election, the "real" Dems are supposed to be Moulitsas and Stassinopoulos-- the two Greek tycoons who entered the party, like, five minutes ago.
Of course, if the Clinton voters would rather switch than accept Obama, the Kos Krowd will presume that the switch occurred because the Clintonites were not REAL Democrats.
Odd thing: The REAL Democrats voted for Clinton, there and elsewhere. She won with those identified with the party. Obama depends on cross-over and independent voters.
Of course, everything is topsy turvy. In this election, the "real" Dems are supposed to be Moulitsas and Stassinopoulos-- the two Greek tycoons who entered the party, like, five minutes ago.
"The percentages from "Aglachel's analysis" are Pennsylvania exit poll numbers (which you acknowledge somewhat later instead of up-front). No....one in their right or left mind would extrapolate them to all voters everywhere."
Sigh. You could extrapolate them to voters in other states who fit their profiles. Thus, white working class Catholics in PA are likely to vote like white working class Catholics in other industrial states in the East and Midwest. (Yes, the divisions break down in the South and the West.)
"If Hillary loses at Denver, her concession and subsequent behavior will determine how her constituency will vote more than how they feel today. Same goes for Barry if he's not the candidate, and for his non-cult supporters."
Where's your evidence? I mean, really.
Also, the operative word here is "cult". BHO has more cult followers than HRC.
"Why do you say Barry will "have a huge victory in the North Carolina primary"?"
Because of the black vote. Blacks get to vote as a block; this is called a civil rights revolution. When whites do the same, it's racism. Don't you know the rules?
"Maybe you don't know what 'white trash' means"
I don't speak for Joe, but I know what it means. What's your point? That it describes a real phenomenon? White people who are dumb and have zero culture, and no real hope of economic mobility? OK, fair enough.
What about blacks? Do you think that nigger describes a related group of blacks? Then maybe we can mainstream that word, OK? Blacks themselves have. I heard the word all the time, pronounced "nigga."
"there isn't any kind of equivalent that can apply to anyone except white people."
I concede the point. But I doubt you'll ever concede the unfairness.
Sometimes I think this country is well and truly fucked.
Sigh. You could extrapolate them to voters in other states who fit their profiles. Thus, white working class Catholics in PA are likely to vote like white working class Catholics in other industrial states in the East and Midwest. (Yes, the divisions break down in the South and the West.)
"If Hillary loses at Denver, her concession and subsequent behavior will determine how her constituency will vote more than how they feel today. Same goes for Barry if he's not the candidate, and for his non-cult supporters."
Where's your evidence? I mean, really.
Also, the operative word here is "cult". BHO has more cult followers than HRC.
"Why do you say Barry will "have a huge victory in the North Carolina primary"?"
Because of the black vote. Blacks get to vote as a block; this is called a civil rights revolution. When whites do the same, it's racism. Don't you know the rules?
"Maybe you don't know what 'white trash' means"
I don't speak for Joe, but I know what it means. What's your point? That it describes a real phenomenon? White people who are dumb and have zero culture, and no real hope of economic mobility? OK, fair enough.
What about blacks? Do you think that nigger describes a related group of blacks? Then maybe we can mainstream that word, OK? Blacks themselves have. I heard the word all the time, pronounced "nigga."
"there isn't any kind of equivalent that can apply to anyone except white people."
I concede the point. But I doubt you'll ever concede the unfairness.
Sometimes I think this country is well and truly fucked.
Joe, why lay the blame for the division at Obama's feet exactly? At best the blame is split.
Had Hillary quit when the match assured she could not win by pledged delegates (as has traditionally been the agreed-upon measure) then these numbers would differ. The continued campaign, with both candidates using negativity, continues to alienate a fraction of supporters from each side (and continues to increase Democratic voter roles, a plus that may be outweighed). These folks saying they will abandon the eventual winner can not be helped as the level of vitriol rises.
SOME of this will abate as the general nears, and some will remain jilted and stay home or leap to McCain. That will be true of either side.
You say he can't win and I disagree, but see your logic. But to lay the blame for the likelihood of people staying home or jumping the fence at Obama's feet alone is disingenuous and inaccurate, is it not?
Had Hillary quit when the match assured she could not win by pledged delegates (as has traditionally been the agreed-upon measure) then these numbers would differ. The continued campaign, with both candidates using negativity, continues to alienate a fraction of supporters from each side (and continues to increase Democratic voter roles, a plus that may be outweighed). These folks saying they will abandon the eventual winner can not be helped as the level of vitriol rises.
SOME of this will abate as the general nears, and some will remain jilted and stay home or leap to McCain. That will be true of either side.
You say he can't win and I disagree, but see your logic. But to lay the blame for the likelihood of people staying home or jumping the fence at Obama's feet alone is disingenuous and inaccurate, is it not?
Two more things, HD:
1. I don't claim that exit poll numbers are exact, reliable data. This is all rough stuff, straight outta the gut. But even physicists use back of the envelope calculations. Plug and play.
2. I concede that "your side" doesn't care one way or the other about Rev. Wright. That's your choice. Your right. But at least concede that the majority of Americans DO care, and will be disgusted when they see the videos of his shouting, hate-filled voice. At least concede that they - rather, WE - have the right to our feelings.
I don't expect you will, HD, but then, you'll be the loser.
Also:
A few weeks ago a reader of yours pointed that Massachusetts is a toss-up state with McCain v. Obama.
Looks like NO QUARTER has picked upon the same vibe:
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/04/23/massachusetts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/#more-2267
1. I don't claim that exit poll numbers are exact, reliable data. This is all rough stuff, straight outta the gut. But even physicists use back of the envelope calculations. Plug and play.
2. I concede that "your side" doesn't care one way or the other about Rev. Wright. That's your choice. Your right. But at least concede that the majority of Americans DO care, and will be disgusted when they see the videos of his shouting, hate-filled voice. At least concede that they - rather, WE - have the right to our feelings.
I don't expect you will, HD, but then, you'll be the loser.
Also:
A few weeks ago a reader of yours pointed that Massachusetts is a toss-up state with McCain v. Obama.
Looks like NO QUARTER has picked upon the same vibe:
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/04/23/massachusetts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/#more-2267
If he doesn't win in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada it is only because those three states have been involved with stealing elections in the past, have a lot of covert activity involving drugs, and in the case of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.. a high percentage of RACISTS and NEO-NAZI activity.
This is the first anon drive-by I've allowed in in a while -- simply because I want my readers to savor the glorious inanity of it all.
I'm talkinig about polls, and I like to think that I would read the polls the same way regardless of which candidate I chose. Anon gives me conspiratorial garbage.
I'm talkinig about polls, and I like to think that I would read the polls the same way regardless of which candidate I chose. Anon gives me conspiratorial garbage.
I am not looking forward to the first hip-hop president. The man could have told his supporters to show some respect for women.
10,000 Obama ads in PA over the last 6 weeks. $11 million in advertising alone.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/hillary_campaign_obama_has_spe.php
And he's worried about upcoming ads distracting voters?
What a crock!
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/hillary_campaign_obama_has_spe.php
And he's worried about upcoming ads distracting voters?
What a crock!
Lazy analysis. Obama has won despite the fact that the party primary base is 58% women. Yes! 58% women. Despite this fact he is the leading on all fronts. That is the hard cold truth in this. Women vote for HRC. White men and Black for Obama.
They have identical positions on everything. So it comes down to this. However there is stark differences between Obama v McCain which can be made. Hence why the Dem nominee has the upper hand. Hence also why HRC is dogged not to lose.
They have identical positions on everything. So it comes down to this. However there is stark differences between Obama v McCain which can be made. Hence why the Dem nominee has the upper hand. Hence also why HRC is dogged not to lose.
J: "Readers"? Who or what do you think I am? Some of the stuff you attribute to me has nothing to do with anything I've posted here (or anywhere).
Why would you require "evidence" for something that's self-evident (albeit eliptical)? But, okay: my evidence is 'human nature'. Erm, would you accept Heraclitus?
Keep in mind that triangles and such (rectangles, hexagons, trapezoids, etc.) cannot exist in nature, and are fictions even in Euclid, since they must be closed - but no two points may occupy the same space. Had I gone to private school I might be able to sue for a refund.
PA voters don't fit some imagined national demographic. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has the oldest (senior) population of any county (except maybe Dade or Broward, if they've grown older lately). Allegheny County's largest employer is University of Pittsburgh. Ask your doctor where the finest medical center is, Boston or Pittsburgh. Plus, Sharon Stone is from Meadville, PA, meaning, if Hillary weren't on the ballot I'd write in Sharon's name.
In 1960, Pittsburgh was the 3rd largest corporate center in the US. It's not even counted today.
BTW, why do you call PA an "industrial state"? The heavy industry disappeared in the 1980s.
The only national demographic that you can extrapolate from, with 99% accuracy, are people who drive Fords. The converse is also true: you can tell if someone drives a Ford.
Re your funny about North Carolina's block vote of black voters: yeah, I know the rules; Jesse Helms etched them in stone tablets. If you're like 23, you wouldn't know who he was. (He had meetings with Richard Mellon Scaife and helped hatch the "vast right-wing conspiracy" Hillary put into Bartlett's).
What on earth do you mean (re 'white trash'): "But I doubt you'll ever concede the unfairness"?
I don't have any idea why you wrote, "I concede that "your side" doesn't care one way or the other about Rev. Wright," unless you've confused me with someone else.
I can't say exactly why, but I bet I'm at a considerable disadvantage in any disagreement since I don't read other blogs (skimming isn't reading) or any newspapers, or watch any TV (except stuff like last night's MSNBC coverage from 9:00-11:20, all times EDT, and some PGA and LPGA stuff; but like Marilyn Monroe, I sleep with nothing on except the radio.
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Why would you require "evidence" for something that's self-evident (albeit eliptical)? But, okay: my evidence is 'human nature'. Erm, would you accept Heraclitus?
Keep in mind that triangles and such (rectangles, hexagons, trapezoids, etc.) cannot exist in nature, and are fictions even in Euclid, since they must be closed - but no two points may occupy the same space. Had I gone to private school I might be able to sue for a refund.
PA voters don't fit some imagined national demographic. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has the oldest (senior) population of any county (except maybe Dade or Broward, if they've grown older lately). Allegheny County's largest employer is University of Pittsburgh. Ask your doctor where the finest medical center is, Boston or Pittsburgh. Plus, Sharon Stone is from Meadville, PA, meaning, if Hillary weren't on the ballot I'd write in Sharon's name.
In 1960, Pittsburgh was the 3rd largest corporate center in the US. It's not even counted today.
BTW, why do you call PA an "industrial state"? The heavy industry disappeared in the 1980s.
The only national demographic that you can extrapolate from, with 99% accuracy, are people who drive Fords. The converse is also true: you can tell if someone drives a Ford.
Re your funny about North Carolina's block vote of black voters: yeah, I know the rules; Jesse Helms etched them in stone tablets. If you're like 23, you wouldn't know who he was. (He had meetings with Richard Mellon Scaife and helped hatch the "vast right-wing conspiracy" Hillary put into Bartlett's).
What on earth do you mean (re 'white trash'): "But I doubt you'll ever concede the unfairness"?
I don't have any idea why you wrote, "I concede that "your side" doesn't care one way or the other about Rev. Wright," unless you've confused me with someone else.
I can't say exactly why, but I bet I'm at a considerable disadvantage in any disagreement since I don't read other blogs (skimming isn't reading) or any newspapers, or watch any TV (except stuff like last night's MSNBC coverage from 9:00-11:20, all times EDT, and some PGA and LPGA stuff; but like Marilyn Monroe, I sleep with nothing on except the radio.
