From the
NYT:
"Is it a good thing for the Iranians to think there are occasions where the U.S. would use force? Sure," said Eliot A. Cohen, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who directed the Air Force's definitive study of the first war against Iraq. "But I don't get a sense that people in the administration are champing at the bit to launch another war in the Persian Gulf."
So, just what would it
take to make the good professor get that sense? Maybe someone at the White House can messenger over an actual bit with chomp marks on it...
Earlier in the piece, we read:
"The problem is that our policy has been all carrots and no sticks," the [Bush administration] adviser told a gathering of academics and outside strategists, according to members of the audience. "And the Iranians know it."
No sticks? Armies in bordering countries do not qualify as being even vaguely stick-like? Just what "carrots" have we, in fact, offered? Better question: Why are authorities dishing out this dissembling swill? The real scoop can be found in lots of places -- for example,
William Arkin's recent column.
To my knowledge, the first to report on plans to use nukes against Iran was former CIA officer Phil Giraldi, writing in the
American Conservative. Let's review:
The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick Cheney’s office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons...
See also
here. Many considered these words outlandish last summer; they seem prophetic now, when even mainstream news outlets feel free to discuss a nuclear strike -- although news stories relegate such talk to the inner paragraphs, as though the first military use of The Bomb since Nagasaki were a purely technical matter.
Giraldi is partnered with another former CIA man, Vincent Cannistraro, who has had his
eye on Michael Ledeen as a possible perpetrator of the Niger forgeries.
Ledeen decried Cannistraro as a trafficker in "groundless" accusations. But on the Iran front, at least, Cannistraro and Associates seemed to be on the money. Perhaps they were right about Ledeen as well...?
There's something funny going on: Although the Bush administration earmarked Iran as being part of the so-called Axis of Evil back in 2002, the CIA was forced to shut down one of its most successful penetrations of an Iranian espionage operation. Read
this fascinating story from roughly a year ago.
Iran had a program to scoop up recruits in South America. (There is a long, as-yet untold story about extreme Islam in that continent.) These recruits would then be in a good position to come to the United States and operate on behalf of Tehran. The CIA penetrated this operation; even during the Clinton years and the short-lived U.S./Iran detente, the funding continued for the Agency's efforts to spy on Iran.
But the Bushies pulled the plug on the project, citing alleged budgetary problems -- just at the time when they started to ramp up the rhetoric against Iran. Now (according to common report) we have very limited intelligence assets in that country, and no way to know who the Iranians have recruited to come
here.
Meanwhile, Ahmed Chelabi -- who has definite ties to Iranian intelligence -- has been slowly rehabilitated.
And am I the only one to notice that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been spouting a bunch of guff that could have been scripted by the neocons? ("Okay, Mahmoud -- you play the heavy. Here are your lines...")
Is your "Spidey sense" tingling too...?