"Democracy" in Iraq may lead to war with Iran

Rightists seem to consider Iraq's most recent election the most satisfactory exercise of democracy since the age of Pericles, and I'm not sure we shouldn't encourage this hallucination. That perception aids the argument that we should declare victory and withdraw, the least horrible our options. Of course, civil war in Iraq will break out a few minutes after we break away, but at least we would no longer be melting and torturing those we intended to liberate.

For a good view of what really went down in these elections, start with this Guardian article on the likelihood of rigged voting in Iraq:

Suspected polling violations on voting day last week far exceeded the number in Iraq's first election in January, local and international monitors said yesterday.

On the deadline for filing complaints, the number of alleged violations which could swing results in the 275-seat parliament was "well into double figures", an accredited international election observer, who wished to remain anonymous, said.

More:

A source close to Mr Allawi's campaign said that in one Baghdad polling station "around 600 men, some with walkie-talkies and purple ink on their fingers showing they had already voted, forced their way in. When the manager tried to stop them asking for ballot papers, they threatened to put him in a car boot and drive him away ... He let them in."

He declined to be identified, citing the fact that an Allawi candidate and five campaign workers were murdered before the poll. All complaints have to be signed by a witness, which created risks, he said.

Fraud or no, Islamist Shi'ite forces (Allawi is a secular Shi'ite) will gain, and Bush may be unhappy with the results:

Some preliminary election results are in and there is certainly a surprise for the Bush administration. There is no surprise for anyone who actually reads or listens to the Iraqi people. Results from some of the more peaceful regions were released today and the news is bad for the American favorite Iyad Allawi. Iyad Allawi was the secular former Prime Minister who supported a cross-sectarian list of candidates. The US had backed Iyad Allawi in the previous election in order to avoid a religious civil war, but it doesn’t look like that’s what the Iraqi people want.

The people actually want their religious fundamentalism and true Democracy is what the Bush administration claims to want. If the people are actually allowed to have their way Iraq will likely because a second Islamic fundamentalist state allied with Iran, and sworn enemy to the Western Satan that the United States represents.

The allegations of vote fraud strike me as a foretaste of a looming civil war. Sunni participation in the election does not mean that the insurgency has ended, and one can only imagine how Sunnis will chafe under a regime friendly to Tehran. Shi'ites, conversely, will snarl mightily if they lose any of the power they have already gained.

Of course, Bush may prefer to resolve the issue by attempting to install a U.S.-friendly regime in Tehran. If he makes such a try, the world will enter hell.